FIRE Planning in SavePoint

🎯 Starting Point: Your First FIRE Plan

When you first open FIRE Planning, you'll see a welcome screen. Click "Create Your First FIRE Plan" to open the configuration form. This is where you tell SavePoint your assumptions about retirement expenses, investment returns, and how you want to calculate your income and savings. Don't worry about getting everything perfect; you can create multiple plans to test different scenarios.

What SavePoint calculates automatically: Your current net worth (from all your accounts) and your savings rate (from the last 12 months of transactions). You don't manually enter these; SavePoint pulls them from your actual data. This makes projections based on reality, not guesses.

👁️ View vs Edit Mode on Plan Configuration

When you open a saved plan, the configuration form opens in View mode by default. A grey banner reads: "Viewing plan details. Click Edit on this plan in the list to make changes." All fields are read-only so you cannot accidentally edit a plan you were only scanning. Click the pencil icon on the plan's row in the plan list to enter Edit mode, where every field becomes writable and Save activates. This separation prevents the easy mistake of typing a new expense estimate into a plan you only meant to review.

💰 Choosing Your FIRE Type

SavePoint offers 5 FIRE types, each representing a different lifestyle and expense level. Choosing a type applies preset recommendations, but you can override any field. The type mainly serves as a starting template and a label for your plan.

• Lean FIRE: Minimalist lifestyle with lower expenses, typically $40-50K annual spending. The preset reduces your expense estimates by 20% to reflect a more frugal retirement. Good for people who value simplicity and are comfortable living below average.
• Traditional FIRE: Standard approach with moderate lifestyle, typically $50-80K annual spending. This is the baseline (100% of your current spending estimate). Most FIRE planners target this level.
• Fat FIRE: Higher expense lifestyle maintained in retirement, typically $100K+ annual spending. The preset increases expenses by 50% to account for travel, luxury, and comfort. For those who want financial independence without sacrificing lifestyle.
• Barista FIRE: Partial financial independence with part-time income covering some expenses. The preset reduces required savings by 30%, assuming you'll earn some money post-retirement through low-stress work. Popular for early retirement with safety net.
• Coast FIRE: You've saved enough that compound growth will reach full FIRE by traditional retirement age (65), so you can stop saving aggressively now. The preset reduces target by 40% since time and growth do the work. You can work less stressful jobs without saving for retirement.

Important: These presets are just starting points. After selecting a type, you can change any field to match your actual situation. The type label stays on your plan for reference, but it doesn't lock you into specific numbers.

📊 How SavePoint Calculates Your Income (Three Methods)

SavePoint needs to know your income to project how fast you'll accumulate savings. You have three options for how to calculate this:

• Historical (from your transaction data): SavePoint looks at income transactions (salary deposits, bonuses, etc.) from the last 12 months and calculates an average annual income. This is the most accurate if your transaction history is complete. Choose this if you've been using SavePoint for at least a year and your income is consistent.
• Fixed Annual Income: You manually enter a specific annual income amount (e.g., $85,000/year). You also set an "Annual Income Increase Rate" percentage (e.g., 3% for annual raises). SavePoint applies this increase rate each year in projections. Choose this if you know your salary and expect predictable raises, or if your historical data is incomplete.
• From Savings Rate: If you have a known savings rate but income varies, SavePoint can back-calculate income from your expenses and savings rate. Less common, but useful in specific situations.

Example: You earn $90,000/year and expect 3% annual raises. Select "Fixed Annual Income," enter 90000 in the income field, and 3 in the increase rate field. SavePoint will project income growing to $92,700 next year, $95,481 the year after, etc.

💵 How SavePoint Calculates Your Savings (Three Methods)

Your savings rate determines how fast you accumulate wealth toward your FIRE goal. SavePoint offers three ways to calculate this:

• Historical Percent (from your transaction data): SavePoint calculates your actual savings rate from the last 12 months. It takes (Income - Expenses) / Income to get a percentage, then applies that rate to projected income each year. This reflects your real behavior. Choose this if your transaction history is complete and your savings habits are consistent.
• Fixed Dollar Amount: You enter a specific dollar amount you save each year (e.g., $25,000/year). Projections assume you continue saving this exact amount annually, not adjusting for inflation or income changes. Choose this if you have a specific savings target or if your savings are very stable dollar amounts.
• Fixed Percentage of Income: You enter a target savings rate percentage (e.g., 30% of income). SavePoint applies this rate to your income each year. If income grows, savings grow proportionally. Choose this if you're targeting a specific savings rate goal (it is common to hear something like: "I want to save 40% of my income").

Example: You make $100K and want to save 25% ($25K/year). Select "Fixed Percentage of Income" and enter 25. As your income grows to $103K (with 3% raises), your savings automatically grows to $25,750 in projections. This keeps your savings rate constant even as income changes.

🏠 How SavePoint Calculates Your Expenses (Two Methods)

Your annual expenses in retirement determine your FIRE number (expenses × 25). SavePoint offers two ways to estimate this:

• Estimated from 12 Months of Transactions: SavePoint looks at your expense transactions from the last year and calculates an average annual expense amount. This is your actual spending. If you spend $55,000/year now, it assumes you'll need $55,000/year in retirement (adjusted for inflation). Choose this if your current spending reflects your retirement lifestyle, or if you have complete transaction data.
• Fixed Annual Amount: You manually enter how much you expect to spend per year in retirement (e.g., $60,000/year). Use this if your retirement expenses will differ significantly from current expenses (maybe you'll pay off your mortgage, or plan to travel more, or downsize). You can also adjust this number to be more conservative or optimistic than your current spending.

Example: You currently spend $75,000/year but your mortgage will be paid off before retirement, saving $18,000/year. Select "Fixed Annual Amount" and enter 57000 ($75K - $18K). Your FIRE number becomes $1,425,000 (57000 × 25) instead of $1,875,000.

📈 Investment and Inflation Assumptions

These fields control the growth and erosion assumptions in your projections. Small changes in these rates have big impacts over decades.

• Expected Annual Return (default 6-7%): What percentage you expect your investments to grow each year on average. Historical stock market returns are around 7-10% nominal, but some FIRE planners use 6-7% to be conservative. Higher return = faster to FIRE, but be realistic. If you use 10% and markets only do 6%, your projections will be way off.
• Inflation Rate (default 2-3%): How much purchasing power erodes each year. SavePoint applies this to your expenses, meaning $60K/year today becomes $72K/year in 20 years at 2% inflation. Historical average is 2-3%, but recent years have seen higher. This affects both your accumulation phase (expenses grow) and retirement phase (withdrawals must grow).
• Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) (default 4%): What percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw annually in retirement without running out of money. The classic "4% rule" comes from Trinity Study research. Conservative planners may use 3-3.5%. Aggressive may use 4-5%. Your FIRE number = Annual Expenses / SWR. So $60K expenses at 4% SWR = $1.5M needed.

Why these matter: If you use 8% returns and 2% inflation, you might project FIRE in 15 years. Change to 6% returns and 3% inflation, suddenly it's 19 years. Don't use overly optimistic numbers; you're better off being pleasantly surprised than devastated. Also, once again, please note that this tool cannot make guarantees about your future. You may be able to use this to generate ideas for planning, but you are strongly recommended to speak with a financial advisor to discuss your specific situation.

🎂 Age and Timeline Settings

• Starting Age: Your age when you started saving for FIRE (or your current age if starting now). This is used to calculate how many years until target age. If you don't remember exactly, use your current age.
• Target FIRE Age: The age you're aiming to achieve financial independence. Common targets: 45 (very aggressive), 50 (aggressive), 55 (early retirement), 60 (semi-early). SavePoint calculates how many years from now this is and whether it's realistic based on your savings rate.
• Life Expectancy Age (default 95-100): How long you expect to live. This affects how long your money needs to last in Monte Carlo simulations. Using 100 is conservative (money must last 40-50 years post-retirement). Using 85 is optimistic. Some people use 90-100 to be safe.

Example: You're 32 now, want to retire at 50, and plan for living until 95. Enter Starting Age: 32, Target FIRE Age: 50, Life Expectancy: 95. This gives SavePoint an 18-year accumulation period and 45-year retirement period for calculations.

💼 Post-FIRE Income (Optional)

If you plan to earn money after retiring from your main career (part-time work, consulting, side business, rental income), enter the annual amount here. This reduces how much you need to withdraw from your portfolio each year, making your FIRE number smaller or your success rate higher.

Example: You need $60K/year to live but plan to earn $15K/year from consulting. Enter 15000 in Post-FIRE Income. SavePoint will calculate projections assuming you only need to withdraw $45K/year from investments, lowering your FIRE number from $1,500,000 to $1,125,000 (at 4% SWR). This is "Barista FIRE" in action.

➕ Adding Post-FIRE Income Streams

Click "Add Income Stream" button to open the form. You'll enter:

• Income Source Name (required): Descriptive label. Examples: "Part-time Consulting", "Rental Property - Duplex", "Pension from Previous Employer", "Side Business - Etsy Shop".
• Annual Amount (required): How much you expect per year in today's dollars. Example: $18,000 for rental income, $25,000 for part-time work. Enter the gross amount before taxes if modeling taxes separately.
• Start Age (required): Age when this income begins. Example: Age 65 for Social Security, Age 50 for part-time work starting immediately at FIRE, Age 60 for pension that vests later. This allows for income streams that don't start right when you retire.
• End Age (optional): Age when this income stops. Leave blank for lifetime income. Example: Stop part-time work at age 70, rental property sold at age 75, pension continues for life (leave blank). Defaults to your life expectancy if left blank.
• Inflation Adjusted (checkbox): Check if this income grows with inflation. Examples:
  • Check for: Part-time wages (likely increase over time), Social Security (has COLA adjustments), pensions with COLA provisions.
  • Uncheck for: Fixed annuities (pay same amount forever), rental income if you don't plan to raise rents, side hustle if you expect to wind it down over time.
  If checked, SavePoint increases this income by your inflation rate each year (e.g., $20K becomes $20,600 next year at 3% inflation).

After adding: Income stream appears in the Post-FIRE Income table showing all details. You can edit (✏️) to change amounts/ages or delete (🗑️) if plans change.

➕ Adding a Life Event

Click "Add Life Event" button to open the form:

• Event Name (required): Descriptive label. Examples: "House Down Payment", "Inheritance from Grandparents", "Kid #1 - Baby Expenses Start", "Sabbatical Year Abroad".
• Event Year (required): Calendar year when this occurs. Example: 2027, 2029, 2035. The form shows how many years away this is: "2029 (4 years)".
• Impact Type (required): Dropdown with three options:
  • One-Time (Blue badge): Single financial impact that year. Examples: House down payment, wedding, car purchase, inheritance. Amount is positive (income/windfall) or negative (expense).
  • Recurring (Yellow/Orange badge): Ongoing annual change starting that year. Examples: Having a child (expenses increase every year), spouse career change (income changes ongoing), moving to new city (expenses change permanently). Amount can be positive or negative.
  • Income Drop (Red badge): Temporary reduction in income. Examples: Sabbatical, parental leave, going back to school. Specify duration (how many years income is reduced) and amount of reduction per year.
• Amount (required): Dollar impact. Enter positive for income/windfalls (inheritance, bonus), negative for expenses (down payment, wedding). Example: $80,000 (positive for inheritance), -$80,000 (negative for house down payment). For recurring events, this is the annual impact. For income drops, this is the annual reduction amount.
• Duration (for Recurring / Income Drop types): How many years this lasts. Example: "18 years" for child expenses (birth to college), "2 years" for grad school income drop, "Lifetime" for permanent expense increase. One-time events don't need duration.
• Notes (optional): Allows for additional details. Example: "College fund for daughter", "Assumed 20% down on $400K house", "Inheritance is estimated, not guaranteed".

After adding: Event appears in Life Events table sorted by year. You can edit (✏️) to update details or delete (🗑️) if plans change.

📊 Summary Cards (Top of Dashboard)

• Years to FIRE Card: Estimated years until financial independence based on current savings rate and net worth (shows "FIRE Achieved!" if you've reached your target)
• Current Net Worth Card: Real-time calculation from all your accounts with your target FIRE number shown below
• Progress to FIRE Card: Percentage complete with visual progress bar showing how close you are to your FIRE number
• Savings Rate Card: Your actual savings rate calculated from the last 12 months of transactions

📈 FIRE Progress Chart

• Visual Progress Display: Chart showing your progress toward your FIRE number with percentage display
• Current Plan Details Panel: Shows your plan name, FIRE type badge, annual expenses, withdrawal rate, and expected return
• Edit Plan Button: Click to modify your plan assumptions or create a new scenario

🎛️ Interactive Planning Tools

You can use the interactive planning tools to make quick inline simulation of your plan based on your actual plan settings or adjust with a few limited updated assumptions. You can then use this information to run a small, light weight monte carlo analysis using the updated numbers.

• Use Plan Defaults Toggle: Switch between your saved plan settings and interactive slider testing
• Savings Rate Slider: Adjust from 0-50% to see how changing your savings rate affects FIRE timeline
• Annual Expenses Slider: Test different retirement expense levels ($30k-$200k range)
• Return Rate Slider: Model different investment return scenarios (1-10% range)
• Safe Withdrawal Rate Slider: Adjust from 3-5% to see impact on required FIRE number
• Run Monte Carlo Button: Runs 10,000 simulations to show probability ranges for your FIRE timeline

🎲 What Monte Carlo Actually Tests

When you click "Run Monte Carlo Simulation," SavePoint runs 500 complete simulations of your FIRE plan. Each simulation uses random market returns within realistic bounds (based on historical volatility), and each simulation can have a very different outcome. Here's what it's testing:

• Sequence-of-Returns Risk: This is the killer. If you retire and immediately face a bear market (like 2008), your portfolio takes a massive hit while you're withdrawing money. You might never recover, even if returns improve later. Monte Carlo tests this by simulating retirements that start in both good and bad markets.
• Portfolio Survival: In each simulation, SavePoint tracks whether your portfolio hits $0 at any point during your projected lifetime. "Success" means you never run out of money. "Failure" means you depleted your portfolio before death. The success rate (e.g., "78% success rate") tells you how many of the 500 simulations succeeded.
• Market Volatility Impact: Each year in each simulation, returns vary randomly based on volatility settings (default 15% annual standard deviation). This attempts to mirror real market behavior where returns cluster around the average but can be wildly different year to year.
• Inflation Erosion: Your withdrawals increase each year to keep pace with inflation. If you start withdrawing $50K in Year 1, by Year 20 you might be withdrawing $90K (at 3% inflation). Monte Carlo accounts for this growing burden on your portfolio.

Why this matters: A straight-line projection might say "You'll reach FIRE in 15 years." Monte Carlo might say "There's a 70% chance you'll reach FIRE between 13-18 years, but there's also a 10% chance it takes 22+ years if markets are terrible." That's reality.

⚙️ Monte Carlo Settings You Can Control

By default, Monte Carlo uses your saved plan settings. But you can toggle "Override with Custom Inputs" to adjust parameters and see how they affect your success rate. Here are all the settings you can control:

Use Plan Defaults (Checkbox): When checked, uses all your saved plan settings. When unchecked, reveals sliders and inputs where you can test different values without changing your saved plan. This is useful for "what if" testing.

Interactive Sliders (when Plan Defaults unchecked):

• Current Net Worth Slider: Adjust your starting portfolio value. Range: $0 to $3M. Default pulls from your actual accounts. Use this to test "What if I had an extra $100K today?"
• Annual Savings Slider: Change how much you save per year. Range: $0 to $100K. Tests how increasing or decreasing savings affects outcomes.
• Annual Expenses Slider: Adjust retirement spending. Range: $10K to $200K. See how living more or less frugally changes your success rate.
• Return Rate Slider: Change expected annual investment return. Range: 1% to 12%. Default 6-7%. Higher returns = faster accumulation, but don't be unrealistic.
• Withdrawal Rate Slider: Adjust safe withdrawal rate. Range: 2.5% to 6%. Default 4%. Lower = safer but need more money. Higher = riskier but need less money.

Market Volatility Model (Dropdown Selection):

• Crash-Aware (Fat-Tail) [Default]: Uses a lognormal distribution that models occasional deep market crashes more realistically. This means simulations will include rare but severe downturns (like 2008) that normal bell-curve models miss. More conservative and realistic.
• Classic (Bell-Curve): Uses a normal distribution where returns cluster symmetrically around the average. This underestimates the frequency of extreme crashes. Less realistic but simpler mathematical model.

Risk Analysis Features (Checkboxes):

• Sequence of Returns Risk (Checked by default, can be unchecked when using custom inputs): Tests scenarios where market crashes occur just before or during early retirement, which is statistically the most dangerous time for portfolio survival. Checked by default because it's critical to realistic FIRE planning. You can uncheck this when "Override with Custom Inputs" is enabled if you want to test simulations without explicitly modeling early-retirement timing risk (though the random market returns will still include some sequence risk naturally).
• Rising Medical Costs (Optional checkbox): When enabled, adds 2-3% extra inflation to medical expenses after age 75, simulating increased healthcare needs in later years. Unchecked by default. Check this if you want to model realistic late-life healthcare cost escalation.
• Life Events (Checkbox): Includes planned major expenses (home repairs, new cars) and income changes (inheritance, part-time work) from your FIRE plan in the simulations. Checked by default. Uncheck if you want to test your baseline plan without these one-time events.

Retirement Income Streams (Checkboxes):

• Post-FIRE Income (Checkbox): Includes income sources you've defined on the Post-FIRE Income tab (part-time work, rental income, side hustles). Checked by default if you've added income streams. Uncheck to see success rate without that safety net.
• Social Security Benefits (Checkbox with detailed configuration): When enabled, you can configure:
  • Primary Earner: Monthly benefit amount, start age (62-70), and years collecting. Default $1,500/month starting at age 67.
  • Secondary Earner (Optional): Add spouse/partner benefits with their own monthly amount and start age. Typically around $1,000/month.
  • Social Security Summary: Shows total monthly and annual benefits. Includes automatic COLA (cost-of-living adjustments) and inflation adjustments in simulations.

Spending Plan Options (Dropdown Selection):

• Fixed ($) - Set dollar amount [Default]: Withdraw a fixed dollar amount each year, adjusted for inflation. Example: Start with $50K in Year 1, which becomes $51,500 in Year 2 at 3% inflation. This is the classic 4% rule approach. Shows your FIRE target as "25 × expenses" because you need 25 times your annual spending at a 4% withdrawal rate.
• Variable (% of assets) - Percentage based: Withdraw a percentage of your portfolio each year. Example: 5% of $1M is $50K in Year 1, but if portfolio drops to $800K in Year 2, you withdraw only $40K. Spending floats with portfolio performance. More conservative in bear markets but you sacrifice predictable income. Your FIRE target is used as a checkpoint only; actual spending varies with portfolio value.
• Guardrails (Guyton-Klinger rules): A hybrid approach that adjusts withdrawals based on portfolio performance within set limits. If portfolio performs poorly, you cut spending by a small percentage. If it performs well, you increase spending. This method maximizes spending flexibility while protecting against portfolio depletion. Named after financial planners Jonathan Guyton and William Klinger who developed the methodology.

Advanced Portfolio Settings (Collapsed by Default):

• Pre-FIRE Volatility: Annual standard deviation of investment returns while you're still working and accumulating. Default 15% (typical for stock-heavy portfolio). Range 10-25%. Lower values (10-12%) represent conservative portfolios with more bonds; higher values (18-25%) represent aggressive all-stock portfolios.
• Post-FIRE Volatility: Annual standard deviation during retirement. Default 12% (slightly lower than pre-FIRE). This accounts for retirees typically shifting to more conservative allocations with bonds and safer assets. Can be the same as pre-FIRE volatility if you plan to maintain the same asset allocation in retirement.

Advanced Market Settings (Collapsed by Default):

• Link Inflation & Returns (Checkbox, checked by default): Models the realistic relationship where high inflation periods typically produce lower real investment returns. This captures "stagflation" risk (high inflation, poor stock returns). Based on historical patterns. Uncheck to assume inflation and returns are independent (less realistic).
• Mean-Reverting Returns (Checkbox with strength slider): Models the tendency of markets to revert toward long-term average returns after extreme years. When enabled, reveals a strength slider (φ) ranging from 0.0 to 0.4:
  • φ = 0.0: No mean reversion (pure random walk). Each year is completely independent.
  • φ = 0.1-0.2: Mild reversion (realistic historical behavior).
  • φ = 0.3-0.4: Strong reversion. After a great year (+20%), next year more likely to be below average. After terrible year (-30%), next year more likely to recover.
  Default 0.30. This is an expert setting; most users can leave this unchecked.
• Age-Based Risk Glide Path (Checkbox, checked by default): Gradually reduces portfolio volatility as you age, typically from 15% down to 10% over 30 years. Mimics target-date fund behavior where you become more conservative over time. This is realistic retirement planning behavior; as you get older, you have less time to recover from market crashes.
• Marginal Tax Rate %: Optional field to enter your estimated marginal tax rate (0-50%). Leave blank to ignore tax considerations. When filled in, simulations can model the tax impact on withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts. Note: This is simplified; actual tax planning requires professional advice for your jurisdiction.

Simulation Count (Dropdown Selection):

• 500 (Default): Balanced option. Provides reliable probability distributions without excessive computation time. Good for most users.
• 1,000: More data points. Slightly more accurate probability estimates. Takes about twice as long to run.
• 2,500: High accuracy. Better for identifying edge cases and rare outcomes. Takes 5x longer than 500.
• 5,000 ⚠️: Very high accuracy. For detailed analysis of tail risks. Noticeably slower (10x the time).
• 10,000 ⚠️ Slow: Maximum accuracy. For rigorous statistical analysis or research. Expect significant wait time (20x slower than 500). Only use when precision matters more than speed.

For most planning purposes, 500-1,000 simulations is sufficient. Higher counts are useful when testing aggressive plans (low success rates) or when you need to understand very rare failure modes.

Fixed Settings (Not Adjustable in Monte Carlo Tab):

• Life Expectancy: Uses your plan setting from the Settings tab (default 95-100 years). Simulations run until this age to test if money lasts your entire lifetime.
• Inflation Rate: Uses your plan's inflation rate setting (default 2-3%). Applied to expenses every year.

📊 Reading the Monte Carlo Results

After simulations finish, SavePoint shows you two main result cards at the top, followed by detailed charts and analytics. Here's how to interpret what you're seeing:

Understanding the Two Key Metrics:

SavePoint displays two different success metrics because reaching FIRE and surviving retirement are two separate achievements:

• Portfolio Survival Rate: This is the headline number for retirement. "76% Portfolio Survival Rate" means 380 out of 500 simulations never depleted the portfolio during your lifetime (you never hit $0 before death). 120 simulations failed (ran out of money). This measures whether your retirement is sustainable. Generally: 90%+ is excellent, 80-90% is good, 70-80% is acceptable but risky, below 70% is concerning. This is what most people mean by "success rate."
• FIRE Achievement Rate: This measures a different question: "How many simulations actually reached my FIRE target amount?" For example, if your FIRE target is $1.25M (25x your $50K expenses), this shows what percentage of simulations hit that number during the accumulation phase. This is displayed as something like "85% FIRE Achievement Rate" with details on years to FIRE and age at FIRE.
  • Years to FIRE: Shows best case (25th percentile), typical (median/50th), and conservative (75th percentile) timeline estimates. Example: Best case 12 years, typical 18 years, conservative 25 years.
  • Age at FIRE: Shows when you'd reach FIRE in different scenarios. Example: Best case age 42, typical age 48, conservative age 55.

Why These Are Different:

• You can achieve FIRE (reach $1.25M) but then have your portfolio fail in retirement due to poor sequence of returns. Example: 80% achievement rate, 65% survival rate means you often reach FIRE, but retirement doesn't always work out.
• You can have your portfolio survive retirement but never technically "achieve FIRE" by the textbook definition. Example: 60% achievement rate, 85% survival rate means you don't always hit the target, but when you retire anyway (perhaps with a higher withdrawal rate or post-FIRE income), you usually make it work.
• Ideally, both rates should be high (80%+). If achievement rate is high but survival rate is low, you're reaching FIRE too early or with too aggressive a withdrawal rate. If survival rate is high but achievement rate is low, you're being overly conservative or may need to adjust your target.

📈 Portfolio Trajectories Chart:

This is your primary visualization. Use the radio buttons at the top to toggle between two views:

• 📊 Percentiles View (Default): Shows probability bands of portfolio outcomes over time. This is the most useful view for understanding range of outcomes:
  • 90th Percentile (Top band): Best case scenarios. Only 10% of simulations do better than this. Shows what happens if markets are favorable. Often shows substantial wealth accumulation.
  • 75th Percentile: Above-average outcomes. 25% of simulations do better, 75% do worse. A good target for optimistic planning.
  • 50th Percentile / Median (Middle line): The typical outcome. Half of simulations end up above this line, half below. This is your "most likely" scenario. Often shows portfolio continuing to grow even in retirement.
  • 25th Percentile: Below-average outcomes. 75% of simulations do better. Shows what happens if you're somewhat unlucky.
  • 10th Percentile (Bottom band): Worst-case scenarios that still succeeded. Only 10% of simulations do worse than this (and those are usually failures). This is the line to watch; if it stays comfortably above zero, your plan has good margin for error. If it dips close to zero or goes negative, you're cutting it close.

  How to read percentile bands: Wide bands mean high uncertainty (market volatility matters a lot). Narrow bands mean your outcome is more predictable (either because you have a huge cushion or because failure is nearly certain). Watch where bands cross zero; that indicates when failures start occurring.

• 📉 Individual Runs View: Shows individual simulation paths as separate lines. This creates a "spaghetti chart" effect with many overlapping lines:
  • Lines that drop to zero: Failed simulations. These are usually red or disappear when portfolio depletes.
  • Lines that stay positive: Successful simulations. Portfolio survives to the end.
  • Lines that grow exponentially: Lucky simulations with great market returns. These can reach absurdly high values (millions or tens of millions).

  Controls: When viewing individual runs, use the dropdown to select how many paths to display (5, 10, 20, 50, or 100 runs). Use "Next Set" button to cycle through different batches of simulations. This prevents overwhelming the chart with 500+ lines. Showing 20 runs is usually enough to get a feel for the range of outcomes.

  When to use this view: Use Individual Runs view when you want to see specific failure patterns. For example, you might notice that failures tend to happen early (first 10 years of retirement) due to sequence-of-returns risk, or that some simulations recover from early crashes while others never do.

📊 Detailed Analytics:

The right panel shows three mini-charts and analytics:

• 🔄 Survival Rate by Age: A small chart or table showing what percentage of simulations are still solvent (haven't failed) at key ages. Example:
  • Age 65 (start of retirement): 100%
  • Age 75 (10 years in): 92%
  • Age 85 (20 years in): 78%
  • Age 95 (30 years in): 76% (final survival rate)

  What to look for: A steep drop early (e.g., 100% → 85% in first 5 years) signals sequence-of-returns risk is devastating your plan. A gradual, steady decline is normal. A flat line at 100% until very late in life means your plan is rock-solid as projected. (Of course this is no guarantee of an actual result.) If survival drops below 70-80% before your life expectancy, that's concerning.

• 📉 Burnout Age Distribution (Only shown if there are failures): Shows when failed simulations ran out of money. Displayed as a histogram or list:
  • Early burnout (age 65-75): Very bad. Sequence-of-returns risk or unsustainable withdrawal rate. You'd run out of money early in retirement when you're still healthy and have many years left.
  • Mid burnout (age 75-85): Concerning. You'd survive 10-20 years but fail before typical life expectancy. Might need to reduce spending or plan for post-FIRE income.
  • Late burnout (age 85-95): Less concerning. You'd survive most of retirement. Might be acceptable depending on family longevity and health.
  • Very late burnout (age 95+): Not really a problem. You planned to live to 95, so running out at age 97 is statistically unlikely to matter. You could adjust spending in your 90s if needed.

  Example reading: "Of 120 failures, 45 occurred between age 70-80, 60 between age 80-90, 15 after age 90." This means most failures happen in your 70s-80s, which is problematic. You'd want to adjust your plan.

• 📊 Early Retirement Stress: Analyzes the first 5-10 years of retirement, which are statistically the most dangerous due to sequence-of-returns risk. Shows metrics like:
  • Average portfolio drawdown in first 5 years: How much your portfolio shrinks on average during early retirement. Example: -12% drawdown means your $1M portfolio drops to $880K on average in first 5 years.
  • Worst 10% drawdown: In bad scenarios, how much does portfolio drop? Example: -35% worst case means in bad outcomes, $1M drops to $650K in first 5 years. If this is extreme (>40%), your plan is very vulnerable to early crashes.
  • Probability of early market crash causing failure: What percentage of failures are attributed to poor returns in first 5-10 years of retirement? If this is high (>60%), you're very exposed to sequence-of-returns risk. Consider: Lower withdrawal rate, more conservative allocation early in retirement, or larger starting portfolio.

📋 Key Summary Table:

Shows critical statistics in a simple table format:

• Success Rate: Portfolio survival rate (same as left card at top). Color-coded green (>80%), yellow (70-80%), or red (<70%).
• Median Ending Portfolio: What your portfolio is worth at your life expectancy age in the median (50th percentile) simulation. Example: $2.3M. This shows typical outcome if you live exactly to your target age. If this is high, you're probably being too conservative. If it's negative or zero, you're too aggressive.
• Annual Spending Assumption (was previously labeled "Median Annual Withdrawal"): The annual expense figure SavePoint uses for withdrawals in each simulated year, inflation-adjusted. The new name reflects that this is an input assumption rather than a derived statistic.
• 10th Percentile Net Worth: Portfolio value at your life expectancy in the worst 10% of successful simulations. Example: $450K. This is your safety margin. If this is a large positive number, you have excellent buffer. If this is negative, 10% of simulations are technically failures, which is concerning.
• 90th Percentile Net Worth: Portfolio value in the best 10% of simulations. Example: $5.8M. This is your "if everything goes great" scenario. Usually a large number. Don't plan around this, but it's fun to dream.

⚠️ Failure Analysis Table:

Only shown if there are failed simulations. Breaks down causes of failure:

• Sequence of Returns Risk: Percentage of failures attributed to poor returns in early retirement (first 5-10 years). Example: "72% of failures." This means most failures happened because of bad luck with market timing. To reduce: Lower withdrawal rate, use more conservative allocation early in retirement, delay retirement by 1-2 years to build larger cushion.
• Early Market Crashes: Percentage of failures where a major market crash (>20% loss) occurred in first 3 years of retirement. Example: "58% of failures." Overlaps with sequence-of-returns risk but specifically measures severe crash scenarios. To reduce: Same as above, plus consider cash buffer (1-2 years expenses in cash to avoid selling stocks during crash).
• Late-Life Expenses: Percentage of failures attributed to portfolio slowly depleting over time rather than catastrophic early crashes. Example: "15% of failures." These are simulations that survived 20-30 years but eventually ran out. Indicates withdrawal rate is slightly too high for long-term sustainability. To reduce: Lower withdrawal rate by 0.25-0.5%, or plan for reduced spending in very late life (age 85+).

If you see 0 failures (100% success rate), this section shows a green checkmark and congratulatory message: "No failures detected in X simulations! Your plan shows excellent resilience."

🎚️ Sensitivity Analysis:

Shows how sensitive your success rate is to changes in key assumptions. Presented as two columns:

• Left Column - How Changes Affect Success Rate: Tests small adjustments to key variables:
  • Market returns 1% lower: Shows new success rate if you get 6% returns instead of 7%. Example: Success rate drops from 82% to 74%. This measures your sensitivity to market performance.
  • Expenses 10% higher: Shows impact if you spend more than planned. Example: $50K expenses → $55K expenses, success rate drops 82% → 76%. Tests lifestyle inflation risk.
  • Life expectancy +5 years: What if you live to 100 instead of 95? Example: Success rate drops 82% → 71%. Money has to last longer.
  • Savings 20% higher: What if you save more during accumulation? Example: Success rate increases 82% → 89%. Shows how much safety margin higher savings creates.
• Right Column - Final Net Worth Percentiles: Shows portfolio value at your life expectancy age across the probability distribution:
  • 10th Percentile (Worst 10%): Portfolio value in bad outcomes. If negative, those are failures. If positive but small, you're barely succeeding in worst cases.
  • 25th, 50th (Median), 75th, 90th Percentiles: Shows full range of ending portfolio values. Wide spread indicates high uncertainty.

How to use this: If small changes cause big success rate drops, your plan is fragile. If success rate stays high despite negative changes, your plan has good safety margin. Use this to decide which variables to focus on improving.

🔥 Burnout Age Distribution Chart:

A histogram showing when failed simulations ran out of money. X-axis shows age ranges, Y-axis shows number of failures in that age range.

• Tall bars at young ages (65-75): Very concerning. Indicates early retirement failures due to sequence-of-returns risk or unsustainable withdrawal rate.
• Tall bars at middle ages (75-85): Moderately concerning. You'd survive 10-20 years but not to typical life expectancy.
• Tall bars at late ages (85-95): Less concerning. Most of retirement is successful, failures occur late in life when you might be able to adjust.
• Tall bars beyond life expectancy (95+): Not really a problem. You planned to live to 95; running out at 97 is acceptable.

Example interpretation: If you see most failures clustered at ages 70-78, that's early-retirement sequence risk. A market crash in your first few retirement years is devastating. Consider: Delay retirement by 2 years to build bigger cushion, lower withdrawal rate to 3.5%, or keep 2 years of expenses in cash to avoid selling during crashes.

Note: This chart only appears if there are failures. If success rate is 100%, you won't see this chart.

📊 Final Net Worth Distribution Chart:

A histogram showing the distribution of portfolio values at your life expectancy age across all simulations. X-axis shows portfolio value ranges, Y-axis shows number of simulations ending in that range.

• Bars in negative territory or at $0: Failed simulations. The further left, the worse the failure (ran out of money earlier).
• Bars near $0 but positive: Successful simulations that barely survived. "Die with zero" outcomes.
• Tall bars in middle ranges: Most common outcomes. Shows where typical simulations end up. Example: Tall bar at $1.5M-$2M means most simulations end with that much.
• Long tail to the right: Lucky simulations with great market returns. Some simulations end with $5M, $10M, or more. This is the "if markets are amazing" scenario.

Shape analysis:

• Bell curve centered well above zero: Good plan. Most outcomes are comfortable successes.
• Bell curve centered near zero: Risky plan. You're threading the needle; small changes could cause failures.
• Bimodal distribution (two peaks): Plan is sensitive to market timing. One peak near zero (bad sequence of returns), another peak higher (good sequence).
• Wide spread: High uncertainty. Some simulations end broke, others end with millions. Outcome depends heavily on market luck.

What this tells you: If the median (50th percentile) is very high (like $3M+), you're probably being too conservative and could retire earlier or spend more. If it's near zero, you're too aggressive.

💥 Crash Sensitivity Analysis Chart:

Compares success rates for simulations that experienced early market crashes (first 3 years of retirement) versus those that didn't. Tests market timing risk.

• Early Crash Simulations: Simulations where portfolio lost 20%+ in first 3 years of retirement (replicating 2008-style crashes). Shows their success rate separately.
• Normal Simulations: Simulations without major early crashes. Shows their success rate separately.
• Success Rate Gap: The difference between the two groups. Example: Normal simulations 92% success, Early crash simulations 68% success = 24 percentage point gap.

Interpretation:

• Large gap (>20 points): Your plan is very vulnerable to market timing. Retiring into a bear market would be catastrophic. Consider: Delay retirement until after a crash, maintain 2-3 years cash buffer, use lower withdrawal rate initially (3%), or plan to cut spending if crash occurs early.
• Moderate gap (10-20 points): Some market timing risk but manageable. Have a plan B ready (cut spending 20% if early crash occurs, do part-time work, delay Social Security).
• Small gap (<10 points): Plan is resilient to early crashes. You have good margin for error. Likely due to: Very low withdrawal rate (<3.5%), large cash buffer, significant post-FIRE income, or very large starting portfolio.

Real-world application: If you're planning to retire in 2026 and this shows high crash sensitivity, monitor market conditions closely. If markets crash 20%+ in 2026, consider delaying retirement by 1-2 years to let portfolio recover. Your success rate might drop from 85% to 60% if you retire at the bottom of a crash.

🎮 Scenario Explorer:

An interactive tool that lets you examine individual simulations in detail. Select a specific simulation from the dropdown to see its year-by-year breakdown.

• Dropdown menu: Lists all simulations (1-500) with summary info. Example: "Simulation #47 - Failed at age 78 (68% return)" or "Simulation #203 - Successful (142% final return)".
• Year-by-year data: Once selected, shows detailed breakdown:
  • Age & Year: Your age and calendar year in each row.
  • Portfolio Value: Net worth at start of that year.
  • Annual Return: Market performance that year (e.g., +12%, -18%, +5%).
  • Withdrawals: Amount withdrawn for expenses that year (increases with inflation).
  • Ending Balance: Portfolio value after returns and withdrawals.

How to use this:

• Examine failed simulations: Select a failure to see what went wrong. Often you'll see: Strong negative returns in first 5 years (sequence risk), or portfolio slowly bleeding down over decades (withdrawal rate too high).
• Compare success vs failure: Select a successful simulation and a failed one. Notice how small differences in early returns compound dramatically over time.
• Identify critical years: See which years matter most. Often it's Years 1-5 and Years 20-25 of retirement that determine success or failure.

Example insight: "Simulation #67 failed at age 79. Looking at the data: -22% return in Year 1 (age 65), -15% in Year 3, +8% in Year 4. Portfolio dropped from $1.2M to $850K in first 3 years. Never recovered. This is textbook sequence-of-returns risk."

⚠️ Withdrawal Stress Analysis Chart:

Shows portfolio stress over time, measured as withdrawal amount as a percentage of portfolio value. Line chart with age on X-axis, stress percentage on Y-axis.

• Green zone (<4% stress): Low stress. Portfolio is growing faster than withdrawals. Comfortable margin for error.
• Yellow zone (4-6% stress): Moderate stress. Withdrawals are significant but sustainable. Classic 4% rule territory.
• Red zone (>6% stress): High stress. Withdrawals are large relative to portfolio. Risky; portfolio may be depleting. This happens when: Portfolio has shrunk due to poor returns, or withdrawals have grown due to inflation.

Chart shows:

• Average stress line: Mean withdrawal stress across all simulations at each age. Shows typical pattern.
• Stress bands: May show 25th-75th percentile range to indicate variability. Wide bands mean some simulations are stressed while others aren't.

Common patterns:

• Stress starts low (2-3%), gradually increases to 4-5%: Normal, healthy pattern. Portfolio grows early, stress increases slightly as you age. Acceptable.
• Stress spikes early (6%+ in first 5 years): Red flag. Early retirement is already stressing portfolio. Sequence-of-returns risk is biting. You may need to cut spending early or plan to work part-time.
• Stress climbs steadily throughout retirement: Portfolio is slowly depleting. Eventually crosses into red zone (>6%). This indicates withdrawal rate is slightly too high. Reduce withdrawals by 10-20% or plan to cut spending in late life.
• Stress stays flat around 4%: Ideal. Portfolio returns roughly match withdrawals plus inflation. Sustainable long-term.

Action items: If average stress exceeds 6% at any age before your life expectancy, your plan needs adjustment. Options: Lower withdrawal rate, increase savings before retirement, plan for post-FIRE income, or accept higher risk of late-life portfolio depletion.

🎯 Success Rate by Age Chart:

Line chart showing what percentage of simulations are still solvent (haven't failed) at each age throughout retirement. X-axis is age, Y-axis is success rate percentage.

• Starts at 100%: At your retirement age, all simulations have positive portfolios. Everyone starts successfully.
• Line trends downward: As years pass, some simulations fail (hit $0). The line drops as failures accumulate.
• Final value = overall success rate: The line's value at your life expectancy age is your portfolio survival rate. Example: Line ends at 78% at age 95 = 78% success rate.

Shape tells the story:

• Flat line at 100% until very late: Rock-solid plan. Few or no failures even at extreme ages. You have massive safety margin.
• Steep drop early (100% → 85% in first 5 years): Sequence-of-returns risk is devastating. Early market crashes are causing immediate failures. This is the worst pattern. Fix: Delay retirement, lower withdrawal rate to 3%, build larger portfolio before retiring.
• Gradual, steady decline (2-3% per year): Normal attrition. Simulations slowly fail over time as portfolios deplete or people live longer than expected. Acceptable if line stays above 80% until life expectancy.
• Accelerated decline late (sharp drop after age 85): Late-life portfolio depletion. Simulations that survive the early years start failing late due to: Longevity (living longer than planned), healthcare cost inflation, or cumulative effect of withdrawal rate being slightly too high.

Key ages to check:

• Age 70 (5 years in): Should be 90%+ if plan is sound. If already below 85%, sequence risk is hitting hard.
• Age 80 (15 years in): Should be 80%+ for acceptable plan. If below 75%, plan is too risky.
• Age 90 (25 years in): Approaching your life expectancy. If below 70%, many simulations are failing before you'd naturally die.

Comparison to Early Retirement Stress: This chart appears in two places: Small version in "Detailed Analytics" panel (right side mini-chart), and large version here in "Success Rate by Age Chart" section. Same data, different sizes. The large version is easier to read and analyze trends.

🎯 What To Do With Monte Carlo Results

Monte Carlo results can be used as part of the puzzle to inform your planning decisions. Here's how to use them:

• If success rate is 90%+: Your plan looks solid. You have good margin for error. You could consider slightly more aggressive assumptions or earlier retirement.
• If success rate is 70-90%: Your plan is workable but has meaningful risk. Consider: Saving more, working longer, reducing retirement expenses, or lowering withdrawal rate to 3.5%. Test these changes with the sliders to see impact.
• If success rate is below 70%: Your plan is too risky as-is. Markets being average isn't enough; you need markets to be above average to succeed. You should: Significantly increase savings, delay retirement, dramatically cut planned expenses, or plan for part-time income in retirement.
• Look at the percentile bands: If the 10th percentile (worst case that still succeeds) shows a comfortable cushion, that's reassuring. If the 10th percentile barely avoids zero, you're cutting it close.
• Check when failures occur: If failures happen at age 75-80, that's early and scary. If failures happen at age 95-100, you're probably fine (you might be dead, or you could adjust then).

Important: Monte Carlo is not a crystal ball. It can't predict the future. It shows you a range of possibilities based on historical market behavior. Markets could behave completely differently. Use Monte Carlo to understand risk, not to guarantee outcomes. Real life will diverge from these simulations. Regularly check with a financial advisor. Monte Carlo helps stress test a plan, but is never a guarantee of actual results.

Portfolio depleted runs: When a simulation depletes the portfolio mid-retirement, the notes column shows "Portfolio depleted" with a skull marker at the failure year. Runs where both the accumulation and the drawdown phases occurred carry a "BOTH PHASES" badge. SavePoint accumulates the unfunded gap as a cumulative shortfall rather than silently letting the simulation continue with a negative balance.

💱 Today's $ / Future $ Display Toggle

Two places now expose a Today's $ / Future $ display toggle: the Overview dashboard's Monte Carlo widget (in the Final Net Worth Percentiles section header) and the Comprehensive MC tab. The default is Today's $, which deflates simulation results to current purchasing power. Future $ shows the raw simulation output in nominal dollars at each future year. Your selection persists across sessions.

What Real vs Nominal actually means

The toggle is showing you two different ways to express the same projected dollar amount, and the names come from a standard economics distinction:

• Today's $ (also called Real Dollars): The dollar amount expressed in today's purchasing power. Inflation has been stripped out so the numbers stay on the same yardstick you use right now when you think about money. If your projection says "you'll have $1,000,000 at age 65 in Today's $", that means your portfolio at age 65 will buy roughly what $1,000,000 buys today: roughly the same house, the same car, the same groceries.
• Future $ (also called Nominal Dollars): The actual dollar number that will appear on your statements at that future date, with inflation included. If inflation runs 3% per year for 30 years, $1,000,000 in Today's $ shows up on your statement as roughly $2,427,000 in Future $. Both numbers describe the same wealth; one strips inflation out, the other leaves it in.

Worked example

You are 35 today and the projection ends at age 85, fifty years out. Assume 3% average inflation. A simulation produces a median ending portfolio of $8,000,000 at age 85.

• In Future $ (Nominal) the chart shows $8,000,000. That is the actual number your hypothetical statement would print at age 85.
• In Today's $ (Real) the same value displays as roughly $1,830,000. That is what $8M of 2076 dollars would buy in 2026 terms (8,000,000 ÷ 1.03^50).

Both numbers are mathematically correct. Future $ looks bigger because the dollar gets smaller over time, not because you became richer. Today's $ is usually easier to plan with because it answers "can I live on this?" using a yardstick you already understand.

How SavePoint applies the toggle

• Time-series surfaces (per-year charts, year-by-year trajectories): deflated per year, so each point on the chart uses that year's inflation factor. Year 10 deflates by 10 years of inflation; year 30 by 30 years.
• End-of-simulation values (median ending portfolio, percentile bands at the final year): deflated with a single rate based on the full horizon.
• Y-axis labels: switch dynamically when you toggle, so the chart is always self-labeled with the mode it is currently showing.

Which one should you use?

Default to Today's $ for planning conversations. When you ask "can my future self live on this?", Today's $ is the number to look at because it speaks the same language as your current spending. Use Future $ when you specifically need to see the raw nominal number, for example to compare against an account statement projection from another tool or to sanity-check the magnitude of inflation built into the simulation.

📤 Custom Export Display Mode Picker

When exporting Monte Carlo results, you can choose how monetary values are displayed in the export. This is the same Today's $ vs Future $ concept as the on-screen toggle (see the Display Toggle section above for the underlying explanation), but applied to a saved file you may share with someone else.

• Today's $: All dollar amounts deflated to current purchasing power. The big future portfolio number becomes a number you can reason about today.
• Future $: All dollar amounts in nominal dollars at each year. The raw simulation output before any deflation.
• Both: Each value shown in the format "$X (today's $Y)" so the reader has both perspectives side-by-side. This is the Excel default because Excel cells have room for both numbers; PDF defaults to whatever mode is currently on screen because side-by-side gets visually cluttered in a PDF.

Which to Choose:

• Sharing with your spouse or yourself for planning: Today's $. The numbers stay on a yardstick everyone already understands.
• Comparing against a brokerage projection or another tool's output: Future $. Other tools usually report in nominal dollars; matching modes makes the comparison apples-to-apples.
• Handing to a CPA, financial advisor, or building a long-term plan deck: Both. Removes any ambiguity about which yardstick is in use and lets the reader work in whichever they prefer.

The cover page and summary sheet stamp which mode was chosen so the export self-documents its perspective. If you open an old export and cannot remember which mode you used, the stamp tells you.

🔄 How Scenario Planning Works

A scenario is an alternative FIRE plan projection with different assumptions. Unlike your main plan, scenarios let you test "what if" questions without permanently changing your saved plan. You might create a scenario called "Aggressive Savings" with 25% savings rate (vs your baseline 15%), or "Conservative Returns" with 5% expected returns (vs baseline 7%). SavePoint projects each scenario's FIRE timeline and lets you compare them visually in charts and tables.

Key Scenario Parameters You Can Adjust:

• Savings Rate or Fixed Annual Savings: Test different savings levels. Higher savings = faster FIRE, but harder to sustain. Lower savings = longer timeline but more comfortable lifestyle.
• Expected Return Rate: Test market assumptions. Conservative (5%) vs Moderate (7%) vs Optimistic (9%). Shows how much your timeline depends on market performance.
• Annual Expenses: Test lifestyle changes. Lower expenses = smaller FIRE number needed. Higher expenses = more years to accumulate. This is often the most powerful lever for FIRE timeline.
• Starting Net Worth: Test "what if I had more saved today" or model receiving an inheritance.

Each scenario gets its own projected FIRE date, years to FIRE, and Monte Carlo success rate (if you run simulations on it). You can save unlimited scenarios and toggle them on/off in comparison charts.

🛠️ Creating a Custom Scenario

To create a custom scenario, you'll adjust the same inputs as your main plan but with different values:

• Scenario Name: Give it a descriptive name. Examples: "Aggressive Savings +5%", "Market Crash Recovery", "Early Retirement Age 50", "Geographic Arbitrage - Portugal"
• Description (Optional): Add notes about what you're testing and why. Helpful when you have many scenarios.
• Adjust Core Assumptions: Change savings rate, return rate, expenses, or starting net worth to reflect the "what if" you're modeling.
• Save Scenario: Scenarios are saved to your database and persist across sessions. You can edit or delete them anytime.

Example Workflow:

Sarah's baseline plan: 18% savings rate, 7% returns, $55K expenses → FIRE in 20 years at age 52. She creates scenarios:

• "Hustle Mode": 25% savings rate → FIRE in 14 years at age 46 (6 years faster!)
• "Conservative Markets": 5% returns → FIRE in 28 years at age 60 (8 years slower, shows market risk)
• "Lean FIRE": $40K expenses → FIRE in 15 years at age 47 (reduce spending, retire 5 years earlier)
• "Inheritance": +$100K starting net worth → FIRE in 17 years at age 49 (windfall saves 3 years)

She compares these in the comparison chart and decides to aim for 22% savings rate (splitting the difference between baseline and Hustle Mode) and target $50K expenses (moderate frugality). This gets her to FIRE at age 48, which feels achievable and comfortable.

📋 Scenario Templates

SavePoint offers pre-built scenario templates to quickly test common situations. Templates are organized by category:

Market Scenarios (Testing Bear Markets & Crashes):

• Dot-com Bust: -10% annual returns (replicates 2000-2002 tech crash). Shows impact of severe bear market lasting 2-3 years.
• Great Recession: -30% returns (models 2008-2009 financial crisis). Tests worst-case market scenario in modern history.

Use these to understand: "If I retire right before a major crash, what happens?" Generally, you'll see FIRE timeline extend by 3-10 years if crash occurs during accumulation phase.

Life Events (Testing Major Life Changes):

• Career Break (3 years): 50% income reduction for extended period. Models going back to school, taking care of family, or sabbatical. Shows savings rate dropping (e.g., 15% → 5%).
• Medical Emergency ($100K): One-time major expense. Models unexpected healthcare costs. Effectively reduces starting net worth or increases expenses.
• Inheritance ($500K): One-time windfall. Models receiving inheritance or business windfall. Shows dramatic timeline acceleration (often 5-15 years faster).

Note: These templates model the financial effect as permanent assumption changes. For one-time events with specific dates, use the Life Events tab instead (which can be factored into Monte Carlo simulations).

Lifestyle Changes (Testing Geographic Arbitrage):

• Geographic Arbitrage - Portugal: 40% lower cost of living. Models moving from high-cost US city to Portugal. Example: $60K expenses → $36K expenses.
• Geographic Arbitrage - Mexico: 50% lower cost of living. Example: $60K → $30K expenses.
• Geographic Arbitrage - Thailand: 60% lower cost of living. Example: $60K → $24K expenses.
• Geographic Arbitrage - Czech Republic: 45% lower cost of living. European option with quality healthcare and infrastructure.
• Geographic Arbitrage - Japan: 40% lower cost of living. Reflects the weak yen and low inflation environment. Fukuoka and Osaka outskirts sit around 0.55 to 0.60 of US costs; central Tokyo closer to 0.75. The template uses 0.60 as an average. Example: $60K → $36K expenses.
• Geographic Arbitrage - Philippines: 65% lower cost of living. The lowest-cost option in the dropdown. Cebu and Davao are significantly cheaper than Manila; comfortable expat life is achievable on roughly $20K to $25K per year. Example: $60K → $21K expenses.

All Geographic Arbitrage templates inherit your plan's savings rate and return rate; they only adjust expenses. So a Lean FIRE plan moved to Portugal stays a Lean FIRE plan with its original savings discipline and return assumption. Geographic arbitrage scenarios show the dramatic power of lowering expenses. Moving from $60K to $30K expenses often cuts FIRE timeline in half because: (1) You save more each year (higher savings rate), and (2) You need less money to FIRE (smaller target portfolio).

Common Scenarios (Quick Testing):

• Higher Savings: +5% savings rate adjustment. Example: 15% → 20% savings. Tests "what if I cut my budget a bit?"
• Conservative Returns: -2% return rate adjustment. Example: 7% → 5% returns. Tests market pessimism or bond-heavy portfolio.
• Optimistic Timeline: +2% return rate adjustment. Example: 7% → 9% returns. Tests if you believe markets will outperform historical averages. (Be careful with this one; optimism can lead to under-saving.)

👁️ Template Preview Before Apply

Clicking a template no longer silently adds a scenario. A preview modal appears showing exactly what the template will change versus inherit from your active plan. Each field is labeled either with its template value or "(inherited)" alongside your plan's current value, so you can see the full impact before committing.

For example, applying "Dot-com Bust" on a 25% savings / $80K expenses plan shows "Savings rate: 25% (inherited)", "Annual expenses: $80,000 (inherited)", and a list of five scenario-scoped return-override events with the exact rates (-9.1% year 1, -11.9% year 2, and so on). Cancel does nothing; Apply Template adds the scenario as before. This makes templates with side effects (life events, post-FIRE incomes, behavioral overrides) transparent rather than opaque.

⚙️ Advanced Overrides (Scenario Builder)

The Scenario Builder has a collapsible Advanced Overrides section with five fields that let a scenario override its parent plan's values. Leave any field empty to inherit the value from the parent plan; fill it in to override just that one setting.

• Withdrawal Rate (SWR): Override the parent plan's SWR for this scenario only. Useful for testing "what if I use 3.5% instead of 4%?" without disturbing the plan.
• Retirement Age: Override the target age. Useful for testing earlier or later retirement on top of the same plan.
• Inflation Override: Use a different inflation rate for this scenario.
• Volatility Override: Use a different annual volatility for Monte Carlo on this scenario.
• Calculation Mode: Force Nominal or Real for this scenario regardless of the plan's setting.

Each empty field shows "Empty = inherit from plan" as a hint. This makes scenarios layered modifications to the plan rather than full clones, so when you update the plan, every scenario that did not override that field picks up the new value automatically.

ℹ️ Field-Help Popovers in the Scenario Builder

Twelve labels in the Scenario Builder have a small info-circle icon next to them. Click an icon to open a popover with a plain-English explanation of that field and a worked example. Click outside the popover or click the icon again to dismiss it. The twelve fields covered are: Savings Mode, Savings Rate, Fixed Annual Savings, Investment Return, Annual Expenses, Starting Net Worth, Annual Income, Withdrawal Rate, Retirement Age, Inflation Override, Volatility Override, and Calculation Mode.

Two fields that get confused most often (Savings Rate vs Investment Return) cross-reference each other in their popovers, so reading either one explains how they differ. Useful when a scenario behaves unexpectedly and you want to double-check what each input actually controls before changing it.

📊 Comparing Scenarios

After creating scenarios, SavePoint displays a comparison chart with three view options. Use the radio buttons at the top of the chart card to toggle between chart types:

📈 Timeline Chart (Default View):

• Line chart showing net worth growth over time for all scenarios overlaid on the same chart.
• X-axis: Years from now (or age)
• Y-axis: Portfolio value
• Each scenario gets its own colored line. Baseline plan is typically bold or highlighted.
• What to look for: When does each line cross your FIRE target (shown as horizontal reference line)? Scenarios that cross earlier achieve FIRE faster. Wide divergence between lines shows high sensitivity to assumption changes.
• Example use: Compare "Conservative Returns (5%)" vs "Baseline (7%)" vs "Optimistic (9%)". If all three cross FIRE target within 2-3 years of each other, your timeline isn't too sensitive to returns. If gap is 10+ years, market performance will dominate your outcome.

📊 Years to FIRE Chart:

• Horizontal bar chart showing how many years it takes each scenario to reach FIRE.
• X-axis: Years to FIRE
• Y-axis: Scenario names
• Bars are color-coded: Green (≤20 years), Yellow (21-30 years), Red (>30 years or never achieves FIRE).
• What to look for: Easiest chart to compare multiple scenarios at a glance. Quickly identify which strategies get you to FIRE fastest.
• Example interpretation: "Baseline: 18 years (green), Higher Savings +5%: 14 years (green), Geographic Arbitrage - Mexico: 11 years (green), Conservative Returns: 26 years (yellow)." This shows savings and expense reduction are more powerful levers than hoping for higher returns.

🎚️ Sensitivity Analysis Chart:

• Tornado chart (horizontal bar chart) showing impact of each assumption change on FIRE timeline relative to baseline.
• X-axis: Change in years to FIRE (positive = delayed, negative = accelerated)
• Y-axis: Scenario names
• Bars extend left (faster to FIRE) or right (slower to FIRE) from the baseline center line.
• What to look for: Longest bars = biggest impact variables. This shows you which assumptions matter most.
• Example: If "Expenses -20%" bar extends 8 years to the left but "Returns +2%" only extends 3 years left, cutting expenses is 2.7x more powerful than hoping for higher returns. Focus your energy on expense reduction.
• Note: This chart only appears if you have multiple scenarios created. With only the baseline, there's nothing to compare.

📏 Timeline Range Selector and Retirement Marker:

• The Timeline view of the Comparison Chart has a Range dropdown in the chart header. Options: Auto (default, sizes to your plan), 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, 50 years, To FIRE + 5y, and Full (life expectancy). The chart never extends past your stated life expectancy. The dropdown is only visible when Timeline view is active.
• A vertical dashed line at your target retirement age is drawn on the chart and labeled "Retirement (age {age})". This makes the accumulation-to-drawdown phase switch visible at a glance, instead of forcing you to read the table to find the boundary.

📋 Scenario Comparison Table:

Table showing detailed metrics for each scenario with the following columns:

• Name: Scenario name. Current plan has green "Current" badge. Baseline/default has blue "Default" badge.
• Plan: Parent plan this scenario belongs to. Scenarios with no parent show a yellow "Unassigned" indicator. New scenarios you create are attached to your active plan automatically.
• Savings Rate: Percentage of income saved. Example: 15.0%, 20.0%, 12.5%.
• Return Rate: Expected annual investment returns. Example: 7.0%, 5.0%, 9.0%.
• SWR: Safe Withdrawal Rate for this scenario. Bold text means this scenario explicitly overrides the parent plan's SWR; muted text means the value is inherited from the parent plan. Each scenario can carry its own SWR independent of the plan.
• Annual Expenses: Yearly spending in retirement. Displayed with currency formatting. Example: $50,000, $36,000, $65,000.
• Years to FIRE: How many years until FIRE target is reached. Color-coded: Green (≤20), Yellow (21-30), Red (>30 or "Not Achieved"). If your starting net worth already meets the FIRE target, this column shows "Already achieved" instead of "Not achieved".
• FIRE Year: Calendar year when FIRE is achieved. Example: 2042, 2038, 2051, or "Not Achieved".
• MC Success Rate: Monte Carlo success rate if you've run the mini Monte Carlo on this scenario. Shown as percentage with color coding: Green (≥95%), Yellow (80-94%), Red (<80%), or "-" if not run.
• Actions: Four buttons per row:
  • ✏️ Edit: Opens the Scenario Builder pre-filled with this scenario's values so you can tweak and save.
  • 📋 Duplicate: Creates a copy of this scenario with "(copy)" appended to the name. Useful when you want to branch a new scenario off an existing one without losing the original.
  • 🎲 Run: Runs a quick Monte Carlo simulation (100-500 iterations) on this scenario. Per-scenario Monte Carlo numbers are now directly comparable to the main MC tab because scenarios route through the same canonical engine and inherit every advanced setting (post-FIRE income, life events, glide path, real mode, Coast FIRE math, tax buckets, salary growth) from their parent plan.
  • 🗑️ Delete: Removes this scenario. Cannot delete the current plan or baseline.

Color coding explained: Rows are color-highlighted. Green background = current plan (what you're actually using). Blue background = baseline/default scenario. White background = custom scenarios you created.

How to use the table: Create multiple scenarios, then click "🎲 Run" on each to see which ones not only achieve FIRE quickly but also survive retirement stress-testing. A scenario might reach FIRE in 12 years but have only 65% Monte Carlo success rate (too risky), while another takes 16 years but has 92% success (much safer).

💡 Practical Scenario Planning Examples

Example 1: Should I take a less stressful job for less money?

• Current plan: FIRE at age 50 with $120K/year income
• Scenario: Reduce income to $90K permanently starting next year
• Result: FIRE delayed to age 53 (3 years later)
• Decision: Is 3 extra years of working worth better work-life balance now?

Example 2: How bad would a 2008-style crash hurt me?

• Current plan: FIRE at age 48
• Scenario: Portfolio loses 40% value in 3 years (next year), then recovers
• Result: FIRE delayed to age 52 (4 years later)
• Insight: You're vulnerable to sequence-of-returns risk. Consider: Saving more, being more conservative, or building a larger cash cushion.

Example 3: What if my parent leaves me $200K?

• Current plan: FIRE at age 55
• Scenario: Receive $200K windfall in 5 years
• Result: FIRE accelerated to age 52 (3 years earlier)
• Insight: A large windfall makes a meaningful difference. Don't plan for it, but if it happens, you gain significant optionality.

⚠️ Using Scenarios Wisely

Scenarios are for exploration, not prediction. Here's how to use them effectively:

• Test realistic possibilities, not fantasy scenarios. "What if I win the lottery?" isn't useful planning, although may be fun to see!
• Focus on downside scenarios more than upside. Planning for job loss is more important than planning for inheritance.
• Don't over-optimize. If a scenario shows FIRE delayed by 6 months, that's not actionable. If it shows 5+ years delay, that matters.
• Use scenarios to build contingency plans. "If I lose my job, I can survive 8 months before FIRE is seriously delayed" tells you how much emergency fund you need.
• Run scenarios before major decisions. Considering a career change? Run the scenario first to see financial impact. Thinking about buying a house? Test it before committing.

Remember: Scenarios are educated guesses, not prophecies. Real life will surprise you in ways you didn't model. But thinking through possibilities helps you make better decisions and reduces the chance of being blindsided.

📈 Net Worth Projection Chart

Line chart showing your projected net worth growth over time. Two lines are displayed:

• Net Worth (Blue Line): Your total portfolio value each year. Starts at your current net worth and grows through a combination of annual savings and investment returns. This line slopes upward, accelerating over time due to compound growth.
• FIRE Target (Red Horizontal Line): Your target portfolio value needed to sustain retirement. Calculated as 25× your annual expenses (if using 4% withdrawal rate) or adjusted based on your FIRE type. This line is flat; it's the finish line you're trying to cross.

What to look for: The year when the blue line crosses the red line is your projected FIRE year. The steepness of the blue line shows how fast you're accumulating wealth. Early years show slow linear growth (mostly savings), later years show exponential growth (compound returns dominate).

Key insight: If your net worth line never crosses the FIRE target line within the projection timeframe, you won't achieve FIRE under current assumptions. You need to save more, spend less in retirement, work longer, or increase expected returns.

📋 Year-by-Year Projections Table

Detailed table breaking down each year of your FIRE journey. Shows exactly where growth comes from and when you hit milestones. Columns explained:

• Year: Calendar year. Example: 2025, 2026, 2027... This helps you think in concrete timeframes ("I'll hit my goal in 2042").
• Age: Your age that year. Example: 35, 36, 37... Makes it personal. "I'll be financially independent at age 48."
• Net Worth: Projected portfolio value at end of that year. Example: $125,000 → $145,000 → $168,000. This includes everything: your current savings, annual contributions, and investment growth.
• Annual Savings: Amount you'll contribute from income that year. Example: $18,000. This is calculated from your savings rate or fixed savings amount. Increases over time if your income grows.
• Passive Growth: Investment returns on your existing portfolio. Example: $8,500. This is your expected return rate (e.g., 7%) applied to previous year's balance. Gets larger each year as portfolio grows. Eventually, passive growth exceeds annual savings (the "crossover point").
• Required for FIRE: How much you need at this point to achieve FIRE. Example: $1,250,000. This is your FIRE target number (usually stays constant, but can adjust if you've modeled expense changes).
• Progress: Percentage toward FIRE target. Example: 13.6%. Calculated as (Net Worth / Required for FIRE) × 100. Watching this climb from 10% to 25% to 50% to 100% is motivating. Shows you're making real progress even if FIRE is years away.
• Events: Life events or milestones happening this year. Shows icons or labels for:
  • Life events from Life Events tab (🎈 for windfalls, 💸 for major expenses, 👶 for family changes)
  • Milestone achievements (🏆 when you cross $100K, $250K, $500K, etc.)
  • FIRE achievement year (🎯 when you hit your FIRE number)
  • Post-FIRE Income streams (gold coins icon) for each active stream in that year. Hover the icon to see the source name and amount per year (e.g., "Part-time Consulting: $20,000/yr").
• Status: Visual indicator of progress:
  • Working (gray): Still in accumulation phase, years until FIRE.
  • FIRE Achieved! (green): The year you cross your FIRE target. This is the celebration row.
  • Post-FIRE (blue): Years after FIRE if projection extends beyond FIRE date.

🔍 Per-Row Calculation Modals

Each value in the Net Worth, Annual Savings, and Passive Growth columns has a small info-circle icon next to it. Click the icon to open a modal that explains exactly how that number was calculated for that row. Useful when a number looks surprising and you want to see the math rather than guess at it.

Each modal shows:

• Phase label: Pre-FIRE accumulation, Post-FIRE drawdown, or "Year 0 (today snapshot)" for the starting row.
• Plain-language formula: Named inputs rather than raw algebra. For example, "Net worth = previous net worth + annual savings + passive growth + life events".
• Mode-behavior block: A note explaining how Nominal vs Real calculation mode affects the numbers shown.
• Cumulative shortfall (when applicable): A red line reading "Cumulative shortfall: $X" if the portfolio could not fund the year's withdrawal in full.

📐 Calculation Mode: Nominal vs Real

The Calculation Mode dropdown under the Projections table has a help paragraph that updates live based on your selection. Nominal mode shows raw dollar amounts at each future year (so $60K of expenses in 20 years displays as roughly $108K at 3% inflation). Real mode shows today's-dollar amounts throughout the projection (so $60K of expenses stays $60K visually, even decades out). Both modes describe the same underlying plan; only the display perspective differs. Choose whichever matches how you naturally think about future money.

🏆 Milestone Summary Cards

Three summary cards show your milestone progress at a glance:

• Milestones Achieved (Left Card - Green): Count of milestones you've completed. Example: "5 out of 12 standard milestones." This is your trophy case. Each milestone represents a significant achievement.
• Next Milestone (Middle Card - Blue): Shows your next target. Example: "Next Milestone: $250,000 - Quarter Million." Gives you a clear near-term goal to focus on.
• Progress to Next (Right Card - Cyan): Percentage toward next milestone and dollar amount remaining. Example: "67.2% - $82,000 remaining." This is your current quest progress bar. Watching it climb from 50% to 75% to 90% keeps you engaged.

📍 Milestone Timeline

Vertical timeline showing all milestones (standard + custom) with progress bars. Each milestone entry shows:

• Checkmark icon (green or gray): Green checkmark = achieved, Gray circle = not yet achieved.
• Milestone name: Example: "$100K - First 100K", "$500K - Half Million", "$1M - Millionaire Status", "My Custom Goal - New Car Fund".
• Target amount: Displayed on the right. Example: $100,000, $500,000, $1,000,000.
• Progress bar: Visual representation of progress toward that milestone. Fills from 0% to 100%. Green if achieved, blue if in progress.
• Completion date (if achieved): Shows when you hit the milestone. Example: "Completed: March 15, 2024." This creates a historical record of your wins.

Hide Completed Toggle: Checkbox at top of timeline. When checked, hides all achieved milestones so you only see what's left to accomplish. Useful when you've hit many milestones and want to focus on remaining goals.

➕ Adding Custom Milestones

Beyond standard net worth milestones, you can add custom milestones specific to your situation. Examples:

• House Down Payment: Set milestone at $80,000 if you're saving for a home.
• Kids' College Fund: Set milestone at $150,000 for education savings.
• Business Startup Capital: Set milestone at $50,000 for your side business.
• Debt Freedom: Set milestone at $0 if you're paying down debt (though net worth might be negative initially).
• First Year Expenses Covered: Set milestone at 1× your annual expenses ($60K if you spend $60K/year). When you hit this, you have a 1-year runway.

How to add:

• Milestone Name: Enter a descriptive name. Example: "Emergency Fund - 6 Months".
• Target Amount: Enter the dollar amount. Example: $30,000.
• Click "Add Milestone" button.
• Milestone immediately appears in timeline sorted by amount.

Managing custom milestones: Each custom milestone has Edit (✏️) and Delete (🗑️) buttons. You can update the name/amount or remove milestones you no longer care about.

📊 Standard Milestones (Built-In)

SavePoint includes these standard net worth milestones based on common FIRE community targets:

• $10,000 - First $10K (Getting started)
• $25,000 - Quarter of the way to $100K
• $50,000 - Halfway to $100K
• $100,000 - First $100K (Huge psychological milestone, hardest to achieve)
• $250,000 - Quarter Million (Compound growth accelerating)
• $500,000 - Half Million (Crossover point for many people)
• $750,000 - Three-quarters of a million
• $1,000,000 - Millionaire Status (Major life milestone)
• $1,500,000 - 1.5M (Comfortable FIRE for $60K/year expenses)
• $2,000,000 - Double Millionaire
• $2,500,000 - 2.5M (Fat FIRE territory)
• $3,000,000 - 3M and beyond

💪 Why Milestones Matter

Motivation through the long haul: Saying "I'm working toward $1.2M to retire in 17 years" is abstract and overwhelming. Breaking it into chunks works better: "This year, I'm focused on hitting $150K. Then next year, $180K. By 2027, I'll cross $250K." Each achievement releases dopamine and keeps you going.

The "First $100K is the hardest" principle: Charlie Munger famously said this. Getting from $0 to $100K is grueling because you're mostly saving, not compounding. Getting from $100K to $200K is faster. $500K to $1M is almost autopilot if you maintain your habits. Milestones mark these inflection points and show you're on track.

Accountability and course correction: If your projections show you should hit $200K by end of 2025, but you're only at $185K, the milestone system highlights the gap. This prompts you to investigate: "Did I overspend? Did markets underperform? Do I need to adjust my savings rate?" It's an early warning system.

Sharing and celebrating: FIRE is often a solo journey, but milestones give you moments to share with family or celebrate privately. Hitting $500K is worth a nice dinner out. Reaching $1M deserves recognition even if you can't tell everyone about it.

➕ Adding Post-FIRE Income Streams

Click "Add Income Stream" button to open the form. You'll enter:

• Income Source Name (required): Descriptive label. Examples: "Part-time Consulting", "Rental Property - Duplex", "Pension from Previous Employer", "Side Business - Etsy Shop".
• Annual Amount (required): How much you expect per year in today's dollars. Example: $18,000 for rental income, $25,000 for part-time work. Enter the gross amount before taxes if modeling taxes separately.
• Start Age (required): Age when this income begins. Example: Age 65 for Social Security, Age 50 for part-time work starting immediately at FIRE, Age 60 for pension that vests later. This allows for income streams that don't start right when you retire.
• End Age (optional): Age when this income stops. Leave blank for lifetime income. Example: Stop part-time work at age 70, rental property sold at age 75, pension continues for life (leave blank). Defaults to your life expectancy if left blank.
• Inflation Adjusted (checkbox): Check if this income grows with inflation. Examples:
  • Check for: Part-time wages (likely increase over time), Social Security (has COLA adjustments), pensions with COLA provisions.
  • Uncheck for: Fixed annuities (pay same amount forever), rental income if you don't plan to raise rents, side hustle if you expect to wind it down over time.
  If checked, SavePoint increases this income by your inflation rate each year (e.g., $20K becomes $20,600 next year at 3% inflation).

After adding: Income stream appears in the Post-FIRE Income table showing all details. You can edit (✏️) to change amounts/ages or delete (🗑️) if plans change.

💼 How Post-FIRE Income Changes Your Plan

The 4% rule assumes zero income: Traditional FIRE math says if you need $60K/year to live, you need $1.5M saved (60K ÷ 0.04 = 1,500,000). But what if you earn $20K/year from part-time work or rental income after you "retire"? Then you only need to withdraw $40K/year from investments, so you only need $1M saved (40K ÷ 0.04 = 1,000,000). You just shaved $500K off your FIRE number!

Example scenarios:

• Barista FIRE: Work 20 hours/week at a coffee shop earning $15K/year. This covers groceries and utilities. Your portfolio only needs to cover housing and discretionary spending.
• Consulting/Freelancing: Keep 1-2 clients earning $30K/year. Work 10-15 hours/week on your own schedule. Covers most expenses, portfolio is just a safety net.
• Rental Income: Own a duplex that generates $18K/year net income after expenses. This is truly passive; doesn't require your time.
• Pension/Annuity: Have a pension starting at age 62 paying $24K/year. This kicks in mid-retirement, reducing portfolio withdrawals at that point.
• Passion Project: Start a small business (Etsy shop, blog, coaching) earning $12K/year. Not much, but every dollar of income is one less dollar you need from your portfolio.

📊 How Post-FIRE Income Affects Calculations

In Projections tab:

• Your FIRE target number is reduced. If you need $60K/year and have $20K post-FIRE income, your withdrawal need drops to $40K/year, so FIRE number drops from $1.5M to $1M.
• Years to FIRE decreases because you need less money to retire.
• Progress percentage accelerates (you're closer to the lower target).

In Monte Carlo simulations:

• Post-FIRE income is factored into withdrawal calculations. Each year of retirement, your portfolio withdrawal is (Expenses - Post-FIRE Income).
• Success rates often increase significantly. A plan with 72% success at zero income might jump to 88% success with $20K/year income.
• Income streams with different start/end ages are modeled accurately. Example: No income age 50-62, $24K/year income age 62-95 from pension.
• Inflation-adjusted income grows in simulations; fixed income stays flat.

In Scenarios tab:

• You can create scenarios with different income assumptions. Example: "Optimistic Scenario" with $30K consulting, "Conservative Scenario" with $15K, "Zero Income Scenario" to test full retirement.
• Compare how income changes your FIRE timeline and success rates side-by-side.

⚠️ Important Considerations

• Be conservative with income estimates: It's better to underestimate post-FIRE income and be pleasantly surprised than overestimate and fall short. If you think you can earn $25K consulting, model $18K to account for slow periods, health issues, or market downturns affecting demand.
• Health and ability: Part-time work assumes you're healthy and able. What if you can't work due to injury or illness at age 63? Have a backup plan (higher savings, lower expenses) or model scenarios without this income.
• Market dependency: Some income (like consulting or Etsy sales) is economically sensitive. In a recession, this income might dry up right when your portfolio is also down. This is bad sequence risk. Model this by running Monte Carlo without the income to see if your portfolio survives on its own.
• Taxes: Post-FIRE income is usually taxable. If you're modeling $20K rental income but lose $4K to taxes, your actual benefit is $16K. Adjust your income amounts to after-tax figures or model taxes separately.
• Flexibility vs. commitment: Some income sources (rental property) require ongoing management and can't easily be stopped. Others (part-time work) are flexible; you can quit anytime. Factor this into your planning. If flexibility is important, model the income as optional rather than guaranteed.

Best practice: Model multiple scenarios. Have a "baseline" scenario with conservative income estimates, an "optimistic" scenario with full expected income, and a "zero income" scenario where you assume no post-FIRE income at all. If even the zero-income scenario succeeds (80%+ Monte Carlo rate), you have tremendous safety margin.

🔁 Recurrence Column on Life Events Table

The Life Events table shows a Recurrence column with the duration of recurring events. One-time events display "-"; recurring events show a value like "20 years" or "ending 2045". This makes it possible to scan the table and immediately see which events keep affecting the projection year after year and which are single-occurrence. The Recurrence input on the Add Life Event form is only shown when you choose a recurring impact type.

📅 What Counts as a Life Event?

A life event is any significant financial occurrence that's not part of your regular monthly budget. Examples:

• One-Time Expenses: House down payment ($80K), wedding ($30K), car purchase ($25K), home renovation ($50K), college tuition lump sum ($40K).
• Windfall/Income: Inheritance ($150K), business sale ($200K), stock options vesting ($75K), tax refund ($5K), settlement ($100K).
• Recurring Changes: Having a child (expenses increase $15K/year ongoing), spouse stops working (income drops $50K/year), moving to lower cost area (expenses decrease $12K/year).
• Income Disruptions: Sabbatical (6 months no income), grad school (2 years reduced income), job loss (estimated 6 months between jobs).

When NOT to use Life Events: Regular monthly expenses (rent, groceries, utilities) go in your baseline expense number. Small purchases under $2K aren't worth modeling separately. Truly unpredictable events (medical emergencies, accidents) are better handled through Monte Carlo risk testing, not life events.

📊 How Life Events Affect Your Plan

In Projections tab:

• Events appear in the "Events" column for their year. Example: Year 2027 shows "🏠 House Down Payment".
• Net worth adjusts accordingly. A $80K down payment in Year 5 shows net worth drop that year. A $150K inheritance in Year 8 shows net worth jump.
• Recurring changes affect all subsequent years. If "Kid #1" adds $15K expenses/year starting in Year 3, all years after Year 3 show reduced savings due to higher expenses.
• The chart and table update to show realistic timeline accounting for these events.

In Monte Carlo simulations:

• Checkbox in Monte Carlo tab: "Include Life Events" (checked by default). When checked, all life events are factored into the 500 simulations.
• One-time events occur in that specific year of each simulation. Example: Every simulation experiences the $80K house down payment in Year 5.
• Recurring events adjust ongoing cash flows in all simulations.
• Income drops temporarily reduce portfolio contributions during those years, testing your plan's resilience to income disruptions.
• You can uncheck "Include Life Events" to run a baseline simulation without these events, then compare. This shows you: "My baseline plan has 85% success rate. With the house purchase and kid expenses, it drops to 78% success. Is that acceptable?"

In Scenarios tab:

• Scenarios can include or exclude life events. Example: Create "Optimistic Scenario" that includes inheritance, "Conservative Scenario" that excludes it.
• Test how major events change your timeline. "What if we don't have kids?" vs "What if we have two kids?" can show 3-5 year difference in FIRE date.

💡 Life Events Best Practices

• Model realistic, not hopeful: If you think you might get a $100K inheritance but it's uncertain, create two scenarios: one with it, one without. Base your primary plan on the scenario without the windfall. If it happens, great; if not, you're still on track.
• Overestimate expenses, underestimate windfalls: Plan for $35K wedding even if you hope to do it for $25K. Plan for $12K/year kid expenses even if your friend says they spend $8K. This builds safety margin.
• Update regularly: Life events change. You might plan for a 2029 house purchase, but in 2027 you decide to keep renting. Delete or postpone the event. Keep your plan current.
• Don't over-model: You don't need to add every possible event. Focus on high-impact items (>$10K or >$5K/year ongoing). Adding 20 tiny events clutters your plan without improving accuracy.
• Use "Events" column as a planning tool: Review the Projections tab Events column annually. It shows you: "Next year, I'm planning to spend $30K on the wedding. Am I on track to have that money?" This prevents surprises.
• Combine with Scenarios for sensitivity analysis: Create scenarios like "House Purchase Delayed 3 Years", "Bigger House (higher down payment)", "No House Purchase (keep renting)". See how these change your FIRE timeline. This helps you make informed decisions about major life choices.

📋 Example: Complete Life Events Plan

Alex, age 28, creates a realistic FIRE plan with life events:

• 2026 (age 30): Wedding (-$28,000) - One-Time
• 2028 (age 32): House Down Payment (-$75,000) - One-Time
• 2029 (age 33): First Child (+$14,000 annual expenses) - Recurring, 18 years
• 2032 (age 36): Second Child (+$14,000 annual expenses) - Recurring, 18 years
• 2034 (age 38): Expected Inheritance (+$120,000) - One-Time (modeled conservatively at $80K)
• 2040 (age 44): Sabbatical (Income Drop -$60,000) - Income Drop, 1 year

Result: Without life events, Alex's FIRE age was 48. With events included: FIRE age pushed to 52 due to kids and house. The inheritance in 2034 helps, but the sabbatical in 2040 delays FIRE by another year. Monte Carlo success rate: 83% with events, 91% without events. Alex decides this is acceptable and focuses on maintaining high savings rate to offset the kid expenses.